Says
former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao during a speech at the Centre
for Public Policy Research at Kochi
By
Shevlin Sebastian
In
April, 2009, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was celebrating its
Platinum Jubilee year. Duvvuri Subbarao, the then Governor of the RBI
went to Chennai to take part in a Town Hall-style meeting, which was
telecast nationally.
Around
half an hour into the show, Subbarao decided to take a straw poll. He
asked the 300 strong audience one question: “How many of you want
the RBI to prioritise inflation over growth?”
About
half the hands went up. Then he said, “How many of you want the RBI
to prioritise growth over inflation? Again half the hands went up.
“There
was nothing dramatic about that,” says Subbarao. “But then it
struck me, just by a visual impression of the hands which went up,
that people who wanted to prioritise inflation over growth were the
middle-aged and lower income people, who were hurt by inflation, and
finding it difficult to balance the family budget.”
On
the other hand, those who wanted growth were the young professionals
in the 25-35 year group. “They were concerned about jobs, career
prospects and had a longer time frame,” says Subbarao. “The
message that I got was that there are different constituencies in our
society who priories different things. So the question for the RBI
was: how does it meet these conflicting priorities?”
Subbarao
had come to Kochi to give the 12th Quarterly Lecture of the
Centre for Public Policy Research. His topic was: ‘Who Moved my
Interest Rate?” This was in reference to his fast-selling book of
the same name published by Penguin. Outside the hall, the books were
selling steadily. “Nationally, the book is doing very well,” says
a smiling V. Madhu, the Kochi-based Sr. Sales Manager of Penguin.
Among
the topics he spoke about was how he managed the global crisis of
2008-10, the monetary policy in 2010-12, and the exchange rate in
2013. He also spoke about the difficulties of the job.
“It
is very tough for the RBI to predict market reaction,” he says.
“Having said that, the effectiveness on any policy depends, to a
large extent, on how the market responds.”
It
was an absorbing speech and kept the audience all attentive. His
final piece of advice: keep your ears close to the ground. Just
before he assumed the post of Governor, in 2008, he went to meet
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a former Governor.
Singh
told him, at the end of the meeting, “When you go to the RBI, you
will run the risk of losing touch with what’s happening the
country, through your preoccupation with the credit rate, inflation
and interest rates, and money supply. Don’t get lost in the
numbers. Always remember that there are real faces behind these
numbers.”
Subbarao
pauses and says, “I have always followed that advice.”
(The
New Indian Express, Kochi)
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